RDB
08-03 02:38 PM
Alright - my wife and I completed the Interview today and they asked for proof of relationship (joint assets, tax returns etc.), current employment letter and Birth Certificates. After that the officer told me that he has approved the case in the system, however, as my PD is not current they can't give me the actual card.
He also mentioned that this is the last ritual in the process and once the dates become current, all they need to do is to order the card production!
I did ask him why we were called for interview when the dates are not current and he said that the best way to process the applications received during the deluge of July 2007 is this way :) - he was kind of mad at DOS for doing that!
So, I guess I just have to wait for the Dates to become current - which might take another 5-10 years :D
Thanks for the link. Looks like I will have to get ready for an interview!!!!
He also mentioned that this is the last ritual in the process and once the dates become current, all they need to do is to order the card production!
I did ask him why we were called for interview when the dates are not current and he said that the best way to process the applications received during the deluge of July 2007 is this way :) - he was kind of mad at DOS for doing that!
So, I guess I just have to wait for the Dates to become current - which might take another 5-10 years :D
Thanks for the link. Looks like I will have to get ready for an interview!!!!
wallpaper Westie - West Highland Terrier
panky72
06-20 02:28 PM
I would like to know if we can travel on AP without a I485 notice, do they ask for it at POE??
Our attorney never told us that he did not receive my I485 notice till date!! we filed in July and he received one of the notice in Oct 2007. He is telling me now when I about to fly in a months time. He has also asked me apply for the renewal of AP & EAD, he has asked me attach the biometric notice instead of I485 notice and my husbands I485 notice.
Can anyone who has traveled on AP without a I485 notice share their experience. Any suggestions are welcome...
Thanks
You can travel on H-1 without I-485 receipt according to new USCIS rule but for travel on AP you still need the receipt for 485.
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_firule.html
Our attorney never told us that he did not receive my I485 notice till date!! we filed in July and he received one of the notice in Oct 2007. He is telling me now when I about to fly in a months time. He has also asked me apply for the renewal of AP & EAD, he has asked me attach the biometric notice instead of I485 notice and my husbands I485 notice.
Can anyone who has traveled on AP without a I485 notice share their experience. Any suggestions are welcome...
Thanks
You can travel on H-1 without I-485 receipt according to new USCIS rule but for travel on AP you still need the receipt for 485.
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_firule.html
mrsr
02-20 11:13 AM
InterFiling Help please gurus...
2011 Westie, priceless, Rescue
zigglar001
11-10 12:35 PM
Hi ,
My 180 days have passed and I have an approved 140. My job was filed in 2002 in EB2 as s/w engg. In this job i moved to project manager in IT. Now I am getting a job offer for an awesome company, nice pay and as a program manager. the role is still in IT but it will be more managing.
Would this be a safe bet to take by choosing AC-21?
Please reply. i need to respond to them in a couple of days....
My 180 days have passed and I have an approved 140. My job was filed in 2002 in EB2 as s/w engg. In this job i moved to project manager in IT. Now I am getting a job offer for an awesome company, nice pay and as a program manager. the role is still in IT but it will be more managing.
Would this be a safe bet to take by choosing AC-21?
Please reply. i need to respond to them in a couple of days....
more...
cbpds
10-20 12:17 PM
he is leading his dem candidate by 30 points in one poll
This is going nowhere... Guys what are prospects of Grassley winning the Nov elections...I hope he looses
This is going nowhere... Guys what are prospects of Grassley winning the Nov elections...I hope he looses
Joey Foley
May 16th, 2005, 07:58 PM
So far, I think I'm going to pick four to send in.
Man, I wish that dust of dirt or whatever it is wasn't on there.
I might give it a other try.:confused:
Man, I wish that dust of dirt or whatever it is wasn't on there.
I might give it a other try.:confused:
more...
Prashanthi
12-03 03:40 PM
If you are 21, then you have aged out with reference to both your H-4 and I-485 petition. Unless you are protected by the child status protection act, which is unlikely if your parents visa number is not available.
Now the question is, what is you status in the United States, are you on an F-1?. If you are then you could perhaps come back on a fresh I-20 to rejoin your course. However, if you have been out of status for 6 months or more as per IRAIRA you will not be allowed back into the country for 10 years. You have to consider all these factors very carefully before you leave.
Now the question is, what is you status in the United States, are you on an F-1?. If you are then you could perhaps come back on a fresh I-20 to rejoin your course. However, if you have been out of status for 6 months or more as per IRAIRA you will not be allowed back into the country for 10 years. You have to consider all these factors very carefully before you leave.
2010 (Schnauzer / Westie mix)
meridiani.planum
11-25 10:20 AM
I would suggest just sending the G-28 forms with the new attorney information. Once this is submitted, call USCIS customer service a week or two later to confirm that the correct attorney information is on file. Later, if you wish, you can send the AC21 documentation. As always, any documents to USCIS should be sent by certified mail or something similar to show the proof if you need it later.
As far as I know G-28 won't trigger an RFE but don't know about AC-21 documents. If you search the forums, you will find that almost always the AC-21 papers don't reach your file.
I second this advise. Just send the G28 and confirm in a couple of weeks to see if the attorney address has been updated.
on a related note for other AC-21 filers: see if you can hang on to your older attorney. You might be able to retain them independent of your old employer (by paying fees on your own). Keeps the USCIS file clean, and also you stick with someone who presumably knows your case a bit better having worked on it from the start.
As far as I know G-28 won't trigger an RFE but don't know about AC-21 documents. If you search the forums, you will find that almost always the AC-21 papers don't reach your file.
I second this advise. Just send the G28 and confirm in a couple of weeks to see if the attorney address has been updated.
on a related note for other AC-21 filers: see if you can hang on to your older attorney. You might be able to retain them independent of your old employer (by paying fees on your own). Keeps the USCIS file clean, and also you stick with someone who presumably knows your case a bit better having worked on it from the start.
more...
stirfries
12-01 08:02 PM
It sometimes take longer than few days. During my years of getting AP's every year there are times I had my AP in hand within 3 days to almost 20 days. I am confident you will get your AP document much before the end of the month. Good luck with your travel plans.
Thanks SS777 !!!
I am optimistic as well !!! I am just hoping that I receive the documents by end of this week !
But at the same time, I wouldn't want to sit idle, just hoping !!! :)
I am going to try whatever options that might be available, to speed up the document receipt, if it is possible !!!
Probably, I can set up an appointment with InfoPass, sometime next week, and see what they have to say about this...
The scary part is, I have read several posts by other users who had reported the loss of document once it has been mailed out by USCIS. I hope I do not fall into that category and I want to be aware of the next course of action, if indeed, I fall into that category.
Cancelling my Tickets is the last option that I have in my mind !!!
The things that we have to go through to get a GC !!!! :)
Thanks SS777 !!!
I am optimistic as well !!! I am just hoping that I receive the documents by end of this week !
But at the same time, I wouldn't want to sit idle, just hoping !!! :)
I am going to try whatever options that might be available, to speed up the document receipt, if it is possible !!!
Probably, I can set up an appointment with InfoPass, sometime next week, and see what they have to say about this...
The scary part is, I have read several posts by other users who had reported the loss of document once it has been mailed out by USCIS. I hope I do not fall into that category and I want to be aware of the next course of action, if indeed, I fall into that category.
Cancelling my Tickets is the last option that I have in my mind !!!
The things that we have to go through to get a GC !!!! :)
hair West Higland Terrier x Maltese
santb1975
02-14 12:03 AM
These are lengthy but...
Have you heard of the issues faced by Higly skilled Legal Immigrants in US?. Visit Immigration Voice.org
Are you a Highly Skilled Legal Immigrant unable to use your skills and serve United States?
Have you heard of the issues faced by Higly skilled Legal Immigrants in US?. Visit Immigration Voice.org
Are you a Highly Skilled Legal Immigrant unable to use your skills and serve United States?
more...
Sheila Danzig
11-28 12:33 PM
Guys,
I want to know what are the chances of getting I-140 approve if we file a new petition and current I-140 appeal process is pending with USCIS. My I-140 was denied on education basis. In denial notice USCIS wrote that we did not prove that my 3+3 (Diploma + Engg degree from India) degree is not equivalent to B.S in Computer science from Labor certification.
Guys please share your experience with me since its important for me to get I-140 approve for future growth.
Thanks
If the Eng degree is a 4 year program where you were granted advanced standing for the 3 year diploma you should be approved if it is properly handled by the attorney and the evaluation agency.
I want to know what are the chances of getting I-140 approve if we file a new petition and current I-140 appeal process is pending with USCIS. My I-140 was denied on education basis. In denial notice USCIS wrote that we did not prove that my 3+3 (Diploma + Engg degree from India) degree is not equivalent to B.S in Computer science from Labor certification.
Guys please share your experience with me since its important for me to get I-140 approve for future growth.
Thanks
If the Eng degree is a 4 year program where you were granted advanced standing for the 3 year diploma you should be approved if it is properly handled by the attorney and the evaluation agency.
hot West Highland Terrier / Westie
pcs
04-17 02:14 PM
What do you mean by PERM was done in 60 days? Do you know the login name & password of the employer. I mean the IT guy will need the login name to answer any querry else he can not pull any info.
How come there was no receipt. Was it filed at all or was rejected by the computer & you do not know that?
How come there was no receipt. Was it filed at all or was rejected by the computer & you do not know that?
more...
house Go westies!
Beta_mle
09-10 07:23 AM
AFAIK, as long as the core duties mentioned in the LC don't change considerably (by more than 50%), the company can promote you anytime.
I just watched the video on the front page promoting the rally and it seemed to say that your salary must remain within 5% of the amount stated in the I-140. Is this correct? This appears to contradict your answer. It also does not make sense. I am in this situation, I-140 approved with PD in '06, I-485 filed in July. My company gives raises of a few percent every year, and I would suppose most companies do. Surely it is not realistic for a person to stay at the same salary for however long it takes to adjudicate the AOS?
Could someone please address this?
Thanks.
I just watched the video on the front page promoting the rally and it seemed to say that your salary must remain within 5% of the amount stated in the I-140. Is this correct? This appears to contradict your answer. It also does not make sense. I am in this situation, I-140 approved with PD in '06, I-485 filed in July. My company gives raises of a few percent every year, and I would suppose most companies do. Surely it is not realistic for a person to stay at the same salary for however long it takes to adjudicate the AOS?
Could someone please address this?
Thanks.
tattoo Westie Rescue Houston
chanduv23
03-04 11:04 AM
Dear IV Lawyers,
First of all a big thanks for all the help to the community. There is a new issue cooking up and is happening more frequently these days and the issue is with aceptance of EAD for employment.
We have been hearing cases where jobs offers are rescinded, because company deicded not to hire EAD holders or the first question a company representative asks is what kind of work authorization do you have? if someone says EAD, then the process never even goes further and doors are shut.
i - 9 form clearly says that one cannot discriminate against EAD.
At the most an employer has to verify if it is 180 days past filing 485 and if the job is similar ( which is in 99.99% of cases which is why the candidate applies for the job). After that, all an employer has to provide is a employment verification letter in case of an RFE/NOID/Wrongful denial - which means that employer does not really sponsor the Green card or transfer the process. Employer does not even have to fill out any forms or do any labor market formalities nor has to file any fees.
A simple employment verification letter is given for a lot of reasons like home mortgage, loans, bank, DMV and veriety of reasons and this is also a reason.
My question is - how do we tackle the question if work status is EAD or GC because most times it is asked as a casual question before the interview or during the interview or after the interview.
My hiring manager who was helping me with my RFE EVL (few years back) told me that in future he wont entertain such things and will make sure he does not hire anyone with such issues. I guess thats is what is happening everywhere because of the RFEs or wrongful denials and with the tough job market, it is a good way to filter out people.
Your suggestions and comments are appreciated.
First of all a big thanks for all the help to the community. There is a new issue cooking up and is happening more frequently these days and the issue is with aceptance of EAD for employment.
We have been hearing cases where jobs offers are rescinded, because company deicded not to hire EAD holders or the first question a company representative asks is what kind of work authorization do you have? if someone says EAD, then the process never even goes further and doors are shut.
i - 9 form clearly says that one cannot discriminate against EAD.
At the most an employer has to verify if it is 180 days past filing 485 and if the job is similar ( which is in 99.99% of cases which is why the candidate applies for the job). After that, all an employer has to provide is a employment verification letter in case of an RFE/NOID/Wrongful denial - which means that employer does not really sponsor the Green card or transfer the process. Employer does not even have to fill out any forms or do any labor market formalities nor has to file any fees.
A simple employment verification letter is given for a lot of reasons like home mortgage, loans, bank, DMV and veriety of reasons and this is also a reason.
My question is - how do we tackle the question if work status is EAD or GC because most times it is asked as a casual question before the interview or during the interview or after the interview.
My hiring manager who was helping me with my RFE EVL (few years back) told me that in future he wont entertain such things and will make sure he does not hire anyone with such issues. I guess thats is what is happening everywhere because of the RFEs or wrongful denials and with the tough job market, it is a good way to filter out people.
Your suggestions and comments are appreciated.
more...
pictures File:Westie.jpg - Simple
lecter
January 6th, 2005, 09:40 AM
Here's the thrid in my "tryptich"
http://www.dphoto.us/forumphotos/data/500/15HL2C9752-old_lady_pole-III-med.jpg
waddaya think?
http://www.dphoto.us/forumphotos/data/500/15HL2C9752-old_lady_pole-III-med.jpg
waddaya think?
dresses 2006-09-09 :: National Dog
singhsa3
07-12 09:18 AM
Thats not the fact! and could be easily argued against.
"We continue to pay for Your Social Security
But the presidency gives illegals over legals more priority"
"We continue to pay for Your Social Security
But the presidency gives illegals over legals more priority"
more...
makeup westie_torta.jpg
amsgc
03-31 03:05 PM
Thank you for sharing your experience.
I am at a loss here, I wish I could tell you what to do. But, I would certainly go back and look at the 1040 instructions for 2004. Rules keep changing, and maybe what you did was the right thing to do.
Perhaps there are others who can throw some light here.
Ams
Hmm....I got married in Nov 2004 and my wife came in to US Dec 2004. and when filing 2004 taxes I didnt think about my wife being NR for tax purposes. I went thru a CPA and I believe she filed 1040 married filing jointly !!
Didnt have any questions or issues so far. Should I bother....file an amendment....or just ignore until in case IRS has an issue?
I am at a loss here, I wish I could tell you what to do. But, I would certainly go back and look at the 1040 instructions for 2004. Rules keep changing, and maybe what you did was the right thing to do.
Perhaps there are others who can throw some light here.
Ams
Hmm....I got married in Nov 2004 and my wife came in to US Dec 2004. and when filing 2004 taxes I didnt think about my wife being NR for tax purposes. I went thru a CPA and I believe she filed 1040 married filing jointly !!
Didnt have any questions or issues so far. Should I bother....file an amendment....or just ignore until in case IRS has an issue?
girlfriend westie dog picture
seahawks
08-09 09:24 AM
Hello,
I did not see any posts regarding "1 year H1 extension approval when filed for 3 years". If this discussion is already in place, please point me to appropriate thread so that I could close this one.
I applied for 3 years H1 extension on 6/26/2007 with approved I-140. My priority date (EB3 -Sep 2003) was not current on 6/26/2007 when I applied for 3 year extension. I got an approval notice today which is valid for only one year. I want to know if this is an error from USCIS so that I could ask to ammend 2 more years.
Thanks!
unfortunately I missed the bus, we send all document May 29th and it reached USCIS CA on 30th, my pd was current for June bulletin and was approved 1 year extensions. I should have waited until Aug to file extensions, this is my 4th H1/H4 extension:( in 4 years.
I did not see any posts regarding "1 year H1 extension approval when filed for 3 years". If this discussion is already in place, please point me to appropriate thread so that I could close this one.
I applied for 3 years H1 extension on 6/26/2007 with approved I-140. My priority date (EB3 -Sep 2003) was not current on 6/26/2007 when I applied for 3 year extension. I got an approval notice today which is valid for only one year. I want to know if this is an error from USCIS so that I could ask to ammend 2 more years.
Thanks!
unfortunately I missed the bus, we send all document May 29th and it reached USCIS CA on 30th, my pd was current for June bulletin and was approved 1 year extensions. I should have waited until Aug to file extensions, this is my 4th H1/H4 extension:( in 4 years.
hairstyles I love most are Westies.
senthil1
04-14 09:58 PM
Even though your employer made you to fake your experience you accepted that. If your employer or anyone complaints about faking your experience you may be in serious trouble especially if you put USA experience. That could lead to fraud charge (In case if anyone reports to FBI) in extreme case. But I did not hear any cases like that in past because no one made formal complaint to government agencies.
Hi,
I am on H1B without job and no paystubs.
My employer has been trying to find a project for me but till now he couldnt get anything.
Its been 6 months alreay since I am on H1B visa.
He made me modify my actual experience to include fake projects .
Now I am thinking of filing a complaint to DOL.
I have my H1B petition and offer letter from the employer.
But I am worried that if I file complaint ,my employer will threaten me telling that I faked my experience and submitted fake resumes.
What should I do? Will DOL take any action against me?
Any success stories of DOL complaint filing?
Hi,
I am on H1B without job and no paystubs.
My employer has been trying to find a project for me but till now he couldnt get anything.
Its been 6 months alreay since I am on H1B visa.
He made me modify my actual experience to include fake projects .
Now I am thinking of filing a complaint to DOL.
I have my H1B petition and offer letter from the employer.
But I am worried that if I file complaint ,my employer will threaten me telling that I faked my experience and submitted fake resumes.
What should I do? Will DOL take any action against me?
Any success stories of DOL complaint filing?
alkg
08-13 08:41 PM
see the paragraph in bold letters.................
Greenspan Sees Bottom
In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
August 14, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
"Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
"Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
"It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.
He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Greenspan Sees Bottom
In Housing, Criticizes Bailout
August 14, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Alan Greenspan usually surrounds his opinions with caveats and convoluted clauses. But ask his view of the government's response to problems confronting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and he offers one word: "Bad."
In a conversation this week, the former Federal Reserve chairman also said he expects that U.S. house prices, a key factor in the outlook for the economy and financial markets, will begin to stabilize in the first half of next year.
"Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009," he said in an interview. Tracing a jagged curve with his finger on a tabletop to underscore the difficulty in pinpointing the precise trough, he cautioned that even at a bottom, "prices could continue to drift lower through 2009 and beyond."
A long-time student of housing markets, Mr. Greenspan now works out of a well-windowed, oval-shaped office that is evidence of his fascination with the housing market. His desk, couch, coffee table and conference table are strewn with print-outs of spreadsheets and multicolored charts of housing starts, foreclosures and population trends siphoned from government and trade association sources.
An end to the decline in house prices, he explained, matters not only to American homeowners but is "a necessary condition for an end to the current global financial crisis" he said.
"Stable home prices will clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities. We won't really know the market value of the asset side of the banking system's balance sheet -- and hence banks' capital -- until then."
At 82 years old, Mr. Greenspan remains sharp and his fascination with the workings of the economy undiminished. But his star no longer shines as brightly as it did when he retired from the Fed in January 2006.
Mr. Greenspan has been criticized for contributing to today's woes by keeping interest rates too low too long and by regulating too lightly. He has been aggressively defending his record -- in interviews, in op-ed pieces and in a new chapter in his recent book, included in the paperback version to be published next month. Mr. Greenspan attributes the rise in house prices to a historically unusual period in which world markets pushed interest rates down and even sophisticated investors misjudged the risks they were taking.
His views remain widely watched, however. Mr. Greenspan's housing forecast rests on two pillars of data. One is the supply of vacant, single-family homes for sale, both newly completed homes and existing homes owned by investors and lenders. He sees that "excess supply" -- roughly 800,000 units above normal -- diminishing soon. The other is a comparison of the current price of houses -- he prefers the quarterly S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index because it includes both urban and rural areas -- with the government's estimate of what it costs to rent a single-family house. As other economists do, Mr. Greenspan essentially seeks to gauge when it is rational to own a house and when it is rational to sell the house, invest the money elsewhere and rent an identical house next door.
"It's the imbalance of supply and demand which causes prices to go down, but it's ultimately the valuation process of the use of the commodity...which tells you where the bottom is," Mr. Greenspan said, recalling his days trading copper a half century ago. "For example, the grain markets can have a huge excess of corn or wheat, but the price never goes to zero. It'll stabilize at some level of prices where people are willing to hold the excess inventory. We have little history, but the same thing is surely true in housing as well. We will get to the point where there will be willing holders of vacant single-family dwellings, and that will no longer act to depress the price level."
The collapse in home prices, of course, is a major threat to the stability of Fannie and Freddie. At the Fed, Mr. Greenspan warned for years that the two mortgage giants' business model threatened the nation's financial stability. He acknowledges that a government backstop for the shareholder-owned, government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, was unavoidable. Not only are they crucial to the ailing mortgage market now, but the Fed-financed takeover of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. also made government backing of Fannie and Freddie debt "inevitable," he said. "There's no credible argument for bailing out Bear Stearns and not the GSEs."
His quarrel is with the approach the Bush administration sold to Congress. "They should have wiped out the shareholders, nationalized the institutions with legislation that they are to be reconstituted -- with necessary taxpayer support to make them financially viable -- as five or 10 individual privately held units," which the government would eventually auction off to private investors, he said.
Instead, Congress granted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson temporary authority to use an unlimited amount of taxpayer money to lend to or invest in the companies. In response to the Greenspan critique, Mr. Paulson's spokeswoman, Michele Davis, said, "This legislation accomplished two important goals -- providing confidence in the immediate term as these institutions play a critical role in weathering the housing correction, and putting in place a new regulator with all the authorities necessary to address systemic risk posed by the GSEs."
But a similar critique has been raised by several other prominent observers. "If they are too big to fail, make them smaller," former Nixon Treasury Secretary George Shultz said. Some say the Paulson approach, even if the government never spends a nickel, entrenches current management and offers shareholders the upside if the government's reassurance allows the companies to weather the current storm. The Treasury hasn't said what conditions it would impose if it offers Fannie and Freddie taxpayer money.
Fear that financial markets would react poorly if the U.S. government nationalized the companies and assumed their approximately $5 trillion debt is unfounded, Mr. Greenspan said. "The law that stipulates that GSEs are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is disbelieved. The market believes the government guarantee is there. Foreigners believe the guarantee is there. The only fiscal change is for someone to change the bookkeeping."
In the past, to be sure, Mr. Greenspan's crystal ball has been cloudy. He didn't foresee the sharp national decline in home prices. Recently released transcripts of Fed meetings do record him warning in November 2002: "It's hard to escape the conclusion that at some point our extraordinary housing boom...cannot continue indefinitely into the future."
Publicly, he was more reassuring. "While local economies may experience significant speculative price imbalances, a national severe price distortion seems most unlikely in the United States, given its size and diversity," he said in October 2004. Eight months later, he said if home prices did decline, that "likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications." And in a speech in October 2006, nine months after leaving the Fed, he told an audience that, though housing prices were likely to be lower than the year before, "I think the worst of this may well be over." Housing prices, by his preferred gauge, have fallen nearly 19% since then. He says he was referring not to prices but to the downward drag on economic growth from weakening housing construction.
Mr. Greenspan urges the government to avoid tax or other policies that increase the construction of new homes because that would delay the much-desired day when home prices find a bottom.
He did offer one suggestion: "The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants," he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one third are immigrants. "Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled," he said. "A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121865515167837815.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
mahujam
09-26 12:31 PM
Hi All,
NSC received my I765 applications on June 21st. I am still waiting for my EAD. I have seen many people from NSC got their approval for the same time frame. Is there anypone in the same boat. Is this something I should be worried about.
Thanks!
My date was june 19th.
I got approval emails yesterday.
Yet to see the card.
Give it a few more days.
NSC received my I765 applications on June 21st. I am still waiting for my EAD. I have seen many people from NSC got their approval for the same time frame. Is there anypone in the same boat. Is this something I should be worried about.
Thanks!
My date was june 19th.
I got approval emails yesterday.
Yet to see the card.
Give it a few more days.
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